The BCS, the AP, and a Div I Playoff

Yesterday I wrote this blurb on the AP's decision to not allow the Bowl Championship Series to use its poll in determining who gets into the 4 major bowl games.

I've read a couple of places where fans have thought that this is the first step towards a Div I playoff. In order for this to pave the way for a playoff, this decision by the AP would have to alter the marginal benefits or the marginal costs to make it optimal for the NCAA to have a playoff system. It seems that this decision forces the NCAA to find an alternate way to determine who gets to determine the national championship, and it may alter the marginal costs of doing so, but it's hardly going to tip the balance towards a playoff.